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Price: Price Varies RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ is the Modern Sartin Methodology and it's available NOW to the general public. Many people know something about the Sartin Methodology from early 90's classics like Brohamer's Modern Pace Handicapping or Pace Makes the Race, but many more do not know how far beyond these initial ideas he progressed. RDSS is based on a full-race analysis of the horse's velocity, pace and incremental energy disbursement and deceleration.
Sartin Methodology Formula
It embodies the principles of the Matchup: how the horses will compete against each other in today's race, given their herd positional tendencies and their innate 'energy' abilities, together with the specific demands of today's track, distance and surface. For a quick overview. RDSS is comprised of three key components: Software - Professionally designed application, free 30 day evaluation. Support - Annual license fee gives you direct support from RDSS developer Ted Craven and any upgrades at no charge. Data - A TrackMaster subscription to 'fuel' the RDSS 'engine' is required, guaranteed you will like it or your money back (within 30 days). RDSS features the following handicapping information:. Bottom line/Betting line Odds Line and contender ranking.
(reviewed by ). Early vs Late energy analysis and detailed pace and final time compounded velocity figures, variant adjusted. Automated race card downloader and export module for sending decision modelling data to Excel spreadsheets. Live connection to the toteboard. A colorful, intuitive, plus much, much more! Visit trackmaster.com to purchase using your Equibase account now!
Read The Sartin Method: A Brief Description text version The Sartin Method: A Brief Description Bob Pitlak Sartin Method Bob Pitlak Introduction This article is intended to offer only the briefest explanation of the Sartin Method. For more detailed information we highly recommend Modern Pace Handicapping by Tom Brohamer (Daily Racing Form Press, NY, 2000) and Pace Makes the Race by Hambleton, Schmidt, Pizzolla & Sartin (Henry House, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1991). The Sartin Method is named after Dr. Howard Sartin, a clinical psychologist who developed it in the late 1970's. In essence, it is an approach to analyzing a race based on the velocities at which horses have run at various stages of races. It's not a 'system.' It would not be unusual to find a room full of handicappers using this methodology yet coming up with different selections for the same race.
Use of the Sartin Method generally requires a computer to perform otherwise tedious calculations. Velocity, perhaps more popularly viewed as 'speed' is a measure of how fast a horse was running. Measured generally in feet per second, its calculation requires dividing the distance run by the time it took to cover that distance. Generally, past performance charts like those published in the Daily Racing Form, include the time it took the leader to reach certain points or 'calls' and the position and number of lengths behind the leader for the horse in question. So calculation of velocity requires that you know the distance to or between various calls (which is not the same for all races), and make a correction to reflect that the horse in question took longer to reach the call than the leader (unless of course, if it was the leader). Although this calculation can be carried out with a hand calculator, it can become quite tedious.
A computer program, such as the Sartin Method Pro Calculator (available at can take the drudgery out of manually punching in all the numbers and doing all the calculations. The Sartin Method starts off by calculating the average velocities run between the standard calls, and then calculates additional factors, most of which have the dimensions of velocity, but do not correspond to actual velocities run at various points in the race. Again, the Sartin Method is not a 'system.' Given the ability to calculate the factors used in this methodology, the user still has to decide whether to base his handicapping decisions on calculations from the last race the horse has run, the best race, or something in between. And, he has to interpret the calculations as well.
Howard Sartin Methodology
The Velocity Calculations The Sartin Method uses four calculations which reflect actual average velocities as well as four other factors which are related to these velocities. The actual velocity calculations are: The First Fraction (1Fr) this is the distance from the start of the race to the first call, divided by the time it took the horse to cover this distance (the average velocity to the first call). 1 Sartin Method Bob Pitlak The Second Fraction (2Fr) or 'middle' fraction is the average velocity between the first and second calls.
The Final Fraction (3Fr) is the average velocity between the second call and the finish of the race. The Early Pace (EP) is the average velocity from the start of the race to the second call. This pace factor is very important because the distance covered amounts to between 2/3 to 3/4 of the total distance of most races.
The additional four calculated factors are: The Sustained Pace (SP) is the average of the Early Pace (EP) and the Final Fraction (3Fr). Note that this has the same dimensions as velocity, but does not correspond to a velocity run at a certain part of the race because the Early Pace and Final Fraction velocities are computed for different distances. The Average Pace (AP) is computed differently for sprint and route races. For sprint races the Average Pace is the average of the 1Fr, 2Fr and 3Fr.
For routes, it is the average of EP and SP. Factor X (FX) is the average of the first (1Fr) and final (3Fr) fractions. This factor is only significant in sprint races. Percent Early (%E) is the ratio of the Early Pace (EP) to the sum of the Early Pace and Final Fraction (EP + 3Fr). This is intended to measure the way a horse expends its energy during a race. More about this later. Interpretation In a nutshell, a Sartin Method practitioner generally begins by calculating the Early Pace (EP), Average Pace (AP) and Sustained Pace (SP) for each horse and basically assigns it a rank in each calculation.
So for example, five horses may wind up with rankings similar to those shown below. Horse One For Money Two For Show Three Is Ready Go For Four Five Alive EP 1 3 5 2 4 SP 3 4 1 5 3 AP 3 5 2 4 1 Clearly One For Money shows the best balance of Early and Late Pace capabilities.
However, there's a lot more to consider. What about running style?
If he's a front runner and this is a turf route where closers have been winning most races we may want to toss him out. His EP ranking makes it look like he's the early leader in this race, but if Three Is Ready is a closer, his SP and AP rankings may make him the better bet. 2 Sartin Method Bob Pitlak Looking at these velocities can help you to visualize how a race will be run.
Obviously, the race is always run by the horse who runs with the highest average velocity. But we all know that you can't simply look at the final times of previous races and pick the horse with the fastest time. How fast a horse will run today will be determined largely by HOW the race is run.
If a horse is drawn into an early speed battle, it may expend so much energy early that it has nothing left at the end. Which brings us to the Percent Early kind of analysis. The Percent Early calculation is an attempt to measure the way a horse expends its energy during a race. This factor is not conclusive taken by itself, but if a horse has competitive velocity numbers and his%E falls into the range corresponding to most winners of this type of race, it is a strong indicator. It is also a strong potential disqualifier if his velocity numbers look good, but his%E is at odds with what has been winning. We have a slight problem with this aspect of the Sartin Method.
While we whole-heartedly endorse the concept of Energy Distribution, the Sartin%E simply does not measure this. The Sartin Method's Percent Early calculation is based on the assumption that energy is proportional to velocity. This is just not true. Kinetic Energy (or the energy of motion) is proportional to the square of the velocity.
You might remember Einstein's famous E=mc2. In Einstein's equation, c is the velocity of light. However, the equation applies to 'down to earth' velocities as well.
Therefore, we use a factor which we call the Pitlak Energy Ratio (PER). Our PER is calculated using the square of the velocities: PER = EP2/ VF2 So, a horse that runs the entire race at a constant velocity would show a 'Percent Early' of 0.5 in the original method, and a PER of 1.0 in ours. A horse that ran an Early Pace that was 20% higher than in the final fraction would have shown a 'Percent Early' = 0.545 1.2/(1.2 + 1) but have a PER = 1.44 (1.2 x 1.2)/(1 x 1).
We think the PER is not only a more accurate measure of energy distribution, but easier to interpret as well. Any PER greater than 1 shows a horse that expends more energy in the early part of the race, a PER less than 1 shows a horse that expends more energy in the close. We have found that a comparison of the PER's of the horses in today's race with those who have been winning similar races on today's track, gives a new insight into handicapping the race.
The PER cannot be considered all by itself, a horse can show a superior PER calculated from very slow values of EP and VF. But, when other factors are relatively equal, the PER can be the deciding factor. Of course, proper use of this factor means that you must take the time to collect PER data from the winners at your track!
Ever since speed handicapping came into vogue a decade ago, students of racing have sought more and more refined ways to translate horses' performances into numbers. Traditional methods have dealt with the final time of a race. If a horse runs six furlongs in 1:11, he will earn a speed figure that depends on the condition of the race track. How he runs-whether he is a front-runner or stretch-runner-is irrelevant. Yet this time-honored approach glosses over a lot of complexities. A horse who battles for the lead, runs the first half mile in 45 seconds and finishes in 1:11 is performing much better than a horse who coasts to the lead in:46 and hits the wire in 1:11. Could there be a mathematical way to evaluate and express the quicker horse's superiority?
West Coast psychologist Howard Sartin and his disciples have developed a method of doing this, and it is as fascinating as it is complex. (A specially programmed, pocket-sized computer is an essential handicapping tool.). The Sartin method evaluates a horse by analyzing his velocity-in feet per second-in different segments of a race. Consider a six-furlong race run in 1:10, after a half-mile fraction in:45 flat.
A horse in this field, whom we will call Theoretical, trails by four lengths at the half-mile mark and two lengths at the finish. How fast did he run? A traditional speed handicapper would say that he covered six furlongs in 1:10 2-5 (since a length roughly equals one-fifth of a second.) Sartin calculates his speed this way: There are 660 feet in a furlong, and 3,960 feet in six furlongs. Assuming that one length equals 10 feet, Theoretical ran 20 feet less than six furlongs in 70 seconds. Therefore his true speed is 3,940 feet divided by 70 seconds, or 56.286 feet per second.
This would be written: (6x660-20) divided by 7056.286 feet per second. This is too elementary to be of much interest to the members of the Sartin school. They are concerned with Theoretical's rate of speed in the early and late stages of the race. Program casierie taxe patrascanu.
In the first half-mile, when Theoretical was four lengths behind a 45-second fraction, his Early Pace was (4x660-40) divided by 4557.778 feet per second. In the final quarter-mile, which was run in 25 seconds, Theoretical gained two lengths on the leader, and thus ran 20 feet more than two furlongs. His Late Pace is calculated: (2x660+20) divided by 2553.60 feet per second. We're still at the kindergarten level of the Sartin methodology. Working with these facts about a horse's performance, Sartin creates a variety of numbers that further define the animal's style and capability. He adds the horse's Early Pace and Late Pace and calls the resultant figure Total Energy.
In the case of Theoretical, 57.778 feet per second for Early Pace, plus 53.60 feet per second for Late Pace, equals a Total-Energy rating of 111.378. The 57.778 feet per second rate that Theoretical ran in the early stages of the race represents 51.9 percent of the energy that he expended; this is his Early Energy, and this number offers a whole new way to look at a horse's style, instead of defining him vaguely as a front-runner or stretch-runner. The Sartin handicappers concoct other numbers, called Sustained Pace and Average Pace, which give them further measurements of horses' performances. When they handicap a race, they don't have one figure for each horse, but several. They rank the contenders in each race in each category, and they might say, 'Theoretical is No. 2 on Early Pace and Sustained Pace, and No.
1 on Late Pace.' So who's the best horse, the one to bet? That depends upon the track on which the race is being run. Tom Brohamer, one of Sartin's followers, conceived the idea of analyzing all the results at a track to determine its tendencies, or what traditional handicappers would call its bias.
They know that a horse who expends 53 percent of his energy in the early part of a race has the optimal running style for Aqueduct; 52 percent would be better at Belmont Park. At a speed-favoring track such as Santa Anita, a horse with a high Early Pace rating would be preferred; a high Late Pace rating would be irrelevant. Sartin is only one of many people today who are attempting to apply computers to handicapping. But most of the others are misguided; they are seeking a neat mathematical model, an all-encompassing formula, that will make it easy to pick winners.
What sets Sartin and his group apart is their willingness to deal with all the diversity and complexity in the game. It is hard for an outsider to judge their performance in dollars-and-cents terms, which is the only standard that ultimately counts, but there is no doubt that they are making a serious, intelligent effort to understand the mysteries of handicapping.
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